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Whither Medical Transcription Growth? MT Growth Drivers for the Coming Decades

Historically medical transcription employment has enjoyed above average growth – surpassing the average growth rate for most occupations.  In recent years, however, technology advances and offshoring trends have contributed to  a moderation of growth in the medical transcription industry.  The question is rightly posed as to what the future holds for the medical transcription and healthcare documentation industry.

The following facts exist:

1. The most recent statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggest that there are in excess of 105,000 medical transcriptionists currently operating on a full time or part time basis in the United States – this doesn’t count any overseas medical transcription employment.  Some estimates put the count at a figure almost double the 105,000 medical transcriptionist government estimate. The BLS expects the overall industry job growth to continue to keep pace with or exceed that of most other occupations – particularly non-healthcare occupations.

2.  The BLS projects medical transcription to post an 11% overall growth over the coming decade.  An expansion of the active medical transcription workforce of 11% would equate to approximately 12,000 new jobs – at a bare minimum.  However, with natural attrition that figure could be far higher.   It is noteworthy to bear in mind that a high percentage of the most seasoned and productive medical transcriptionists will be retiring in coming years – consistent with broader demographic trends seen in the United States.  One of the most important things that the BLS statistics miss is the fact that it takes years of experience for a transcriptionist to achieve a peak level of productive capacity.  In other words, it is not possible to replace the production of a highly productive and efficient retiring MT with the capacity of a single new graduate.  The reality is that the BLS statistics likely underestimate the overall demand for medical transcriptionists in the coming decade.  This is good news for prospective MT’s and harder news for healthcare managers who will continue to struggle to keep up with surging demand and a persistent capacity imbalance.

In addition to the raw statistical projections discussed above, consider the following demographic, legal, political and social trends that will all converge to shape the medical transcription industry over the next several decades – primarily driving demand for healthcare documentation to higher and higher levels – at least until the end of the current baby boom cycle – at least another 25-30 years.

  • A continuously growing population – the population of the United States and the world continues to expand relatively unabated.  This US population growth rate may be significantly understated as a consequence of the rapid growth of undocumented workers entering the country each year.
  • A rapidly aging population attributable to an upcoming and ongoing wave of elderly baby boomers and advances in healthcare treatments designed to extend life spans.
  • Increasing pressure on healthcare systems and processes to continue to extend life spans and provide quality of life to the elderly and other segments of the population.
  • A rapid increase in chronic and age and lifestyle related infirmities requiring acute care and non-acute but continuous care.
  • A significant increase in the quantity of malpractice lawsuits targeted at the healthcare industry and its practitioners. The healthcare industry will continue to respond with more inclusive and detailed medical documentation reports to reduce liability and provide an important legal papertrail.  (Translation: longer reports, more documentation – not less, more reports – not fewer, higher volumes of line counts, etc. etc.)
  • A continuation of the current trend toward medical specialization. This will result in a single patient being seen by multiple specialists instead of a single general practitioner with each visit requiring an additional layer of documentation.
  • An acceleration of the movement toward electronic information documentation as a means of enhancing both the quality of patient care and the accessibility of patient healthcare information.
  • An increasing ability to successfully treat conditions and prolong life in previously terminal patients.

While it is true that some of the projected future demand will be siphoned off by offshoring organizations or mitigated by technology,  it seems clear that the supply-demand conundrum that has existed for many decades will only be accentuated in coming years.  The need for quality medical transcription practitioners should begin to accelerate again after a brief respite.